What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace or heat pump has to work from October through May here, eight months out of twelve. That is the real test, not the three summer months. The overnight low averages 18°F across December, January and February, and a standard heat pump's output starts falling short of its rating once it drops below 40°F outside. By 18°F it is well past that mark. It also crosses the point, around 35°F, where it typically needs backup heat to keep up.
That is not a rare cold snap. About 125 nights a year here fall to freezing or below, roughly half of the nights across the whole heating season, and every one of those nights is below both the 40°F and 35°F marks. Ten nights a year reach 0°F or below, a small share of the 125, but it tells you the backup heat built into a standard heat pump system is not sitting idle. It is working most winters here.
That does not rule out a heat pump. A model built and tested to the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate standard has to deliver at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F and hold onto 70 percent of its 47°F capacity at that temperature. Field testing of prototype cold-climate heat pumps in occupied homes found backup heat covered only a small share of the output between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. A standard heat pump and a cold-climate one behave differently here. If a heat pump is on the table for this house, which one it is matters more than it would somewhere milder.











