Winters here are long and genuinely cold
Heat runs seven months a year in Sangamon County, October through April. That is the longer of your two seasons by a wide margin, cooling only runs May through September. Whatever you install is going to spend most of its working life heating this house, not cooling it.
The overnight low averages 22°F across December, January and February. That number matters because a standard heat pump has two different marks against it: below 40°F its heat output drops under its rating, and below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to make up the difference. Twenty-two degrees is below both marks. So is every one of the roughly 115 nights a year here that fall to freezing or below, over half the nights in heating season.
That does not mean a heat pump quits. A heat pump built to the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate standard has to prove, under third party testing, that it still makes at least 1.75 units of heat for every unit of electricity at 5°F, and holds onto 70 percent of its warm weather capacity at that temperature. Field tests of cold climate heat pumps in occupied homes back this up: backup heat only covered a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the unit ran on backup alone only rarely above 0°F. Sangamon County only sees about 5 nights a year at 0°F or below. A cold climate heat pump is built for exactly the nights you actually get.











