What the cold does to a heat pump here
Winter here is long and it bites. Heat runs seven months, October through April, and the overnight low averages 24°F across December, January and February. About 105 nights a year dip to freezing or below, roughly half the nights the heat is even on. A standard heat pump starts losing ground before it gets anywhere near that cold. Below 40°F its output falls short of what it's rated for. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to keep up. Every single one of those 105 freezing nights here falls under both marks. This is not a storm that passes through. It is most of the winter.
So the furnace question and the backup question are the same question here. A standard heat pump in Macoupin County is going to lean on backup heat through a lot of its working nights, not just the rare deep freeze. That changes what you're actually buying. You're not buying a heat pump that covers winter and occasionally gets help. You're buying a heat pump that shares winter with something else most of the season.
There is a way around this. Heat pumps built and tested to the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate standard hold onto at least 70 percent of their 47°F heating capacity even at 5°F, and keep making more heat than the electricity they use at that temperature. Field tests of cold-climate units in real homes found backup heat carried only a small share of the total load between 0°F and 35°F, and the units rarely ran on backup alone unless it dropped below 0°F. That matters here because this county only sees 0°F or below about 3 nights a year. A cold-climate heat pump is built for a county that looks almost exactly like this one. A standard heat pump is not.











