What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace or heat pump here runs eight months a year, October through May, longer than it runs idle. That's the season this decision has to hold up over, not just the cold snaps. The average overnight low across December, January and February is 21°F, and about 120 nights a year dip to freezing or below. Six of those nights hit 0°F.
A standard heat pump starts losing ground before it gets anywhere near that cold. Below 40°F its heat output drops under its rating. Below about 35°F it typically needs backup heat to make up the difference. Your winter low of 21°F sits under both marks, and every single one of those 120 freezing nights does too. This isn't a problem on the worst night of the year. It's the normal pattern for about half the nights heat runs here.
A heat pump built to carry the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate label is a different machine. To earn that label it has to deliver at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F, and hold onto 70 percent of its 47°F capacity at that same temperature, checked by independent testing. Field tests on prototype cold-climate units back this up in practice: over two winters in occupied homes, backup heat covered only a small share of the output between 0°F and 35°F, and the unit running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. If a heat pump is the choice, the difference between a standard model and a cold-climate one is the difference between a machine that struggles here and one that doesn't.











