Cold is the real question here
Winters here settle the question before cost does. The overnight low averages 19°F across December, January and February, and that's below both marks that matter for a heat pump. Below 40°F, a standard heat pump puts out less than its rated capacity. Below about 35°F, it typically needs backup heat to keep up. At 19°F average, your house is living in that gap most of the winter, not visiting it on a bad night.
Heat runs eight months a year here, October through May, and about 135 of those nights drop to freezing or below. That's over half the heating season spent below the point where a standard heat pump starts to struggle. Only about 10 nights a year hit 0°F, so the deep cold is rare, but the cold that actually hurts a heat pump's output starts well above zero.
A cold climate heat pump changes this. To earn that label a unit has to hold onto at least 70 percent of its 47°F heating capacity at 5°F, and still produce more heat than electricity put in at that temperature, tested by a third party rather than claimed by the manufacturer. Field tests of these units in occupied homes found backup heat carried only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the units ran on backup alone only rarely, even above 0°F. A standard heat pump and a cold climate one are not the same machine in a winter like this one.











