Winters here are long and genuinely cold
Winnebago County runs heat about eight months a year, October through May. Cooling only runs about three. Whatever you install is mostly a heating system that happens to also cool the house in summer.
The overnight low averages 16 degrees across December, January and February, and it drops to freezing or below on about 140 nights a year, over half the nights the heat runs. About 14 of those nights reach 0 degrees or colder. A standard heat pump loses ground as it gets cold. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it typically needs backup heat to keep up. The average winter night here is colder than both marks, and every single night at or below freezing is too. A gas furnace does not have that problem. It burns gas and makes the same heat whatever the temperature outside.
That does not mean a heat pump will leave you cold. ENERGY STAR's Cold Climate heat pumps are tested to hold at least 70 percent of their rated heat, and at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity, at 5°F. Field tests of these units in occupied homes found backup heat covering only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. The number that matters is whether the unit you are quoted carries that cold-climate rating, not just whether it is called a heat pump.











