What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace or heat pump here runs eight months a year, October through May, longer than any other season does anything to your house. That is the season this decision is about. The overnight low averages 17°F across December, January and February, and it drops to freezing or below on about 140 nights a year, more than half the nights the heat is running at all.
A standard heat pump starts losing ground before it gets anywhere near that cold. Below 40°F it already puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to keep up. Seventeen degrees, the average winter night here, is past both marks, and every single one of those 140 freezing nights is too. This is not a worst-case question. It is most nights, most winters.
Fourteen nights a year here reach 0°F or below. That is the specific case for a cold-climate heat pump, the kind built and tested to hold most of its capacity at 5°F. A two-winter field test of prototype cold-climate models found backup heat carried only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. That is a real answer for the coldest 14 nights. It does not change what happens on the other 140.











