A bigger unit isn't a safer bet
An oversized heat pump cools the air fast and shuts off before it pulls the moisture out of it, so the house ends up cold and damp. In heating mode it short cycles the same way, kicking on, hitting the thermostat setting, and shutting off again before it runs long enough to heat evenly. Short cycling also wears the compressor harder, since the start is where it draws the most and stresses the most.







